How the probabilities are calculated

A computer program was written to compute the probabilities that a team will:

1. make the playoffs based on winning or losing the remaining games of the season
2. make the playoffs based on winning all of its remaining games
3. win the superbowl based on making the playoffs and winning all games in the playoffs

So how does the computer know which teams will succeed and at what probabilities?
First the computer has to predict the outcome of each remaining game to be played. It uses four sets of data:

1. The two opponents and where the game is played (home-field advantage)
2. A sampling technique
3. A team strength evaluation representing how all teams stack up against other teams.
4. The NFL tie-breaking rules for selection to the playoffs and for seeding.

The program will play out the remaining games with scores based on the above four pieces of information. The random number generator provides a random score for each team, but this score is modified by giving the home team and the higher rated (power ratings) team additional points. The outcome for the entire season for each team is computed and using the NFL tie-breaking rules, the program will determine which division winner is seeded 1, 2 3 or 4 and which teams receive the 1 and 2 wild cards. The is done for both the American and National Conference. The NFL rules are made up of 10 steps which start with Won-Loss record, games within the division and conference, offensive points, defensive points, games against common opponents, head-to-head competition, strength of schedule, strength of victory, etc.

Now after the computer has played an entire season by assigning values to the remaining games, the computer starts over again and plays out the season again, a total of one million times where results of each season will vary based on sampling the results of the remainining games. So in one season a team that is an underdog in one game will lose that game to a favorite, in another season, the underdog might pull off an upset. However by playing a million seasons, the probability that that team will win a game will be determined by the percentage of wins based on one million games played. The same holds true for a team making the playoffs or winning the superbowl. The fraction or probability a team makes the playoffs is equal to the number of computer generated times a team makes the playoffs divided by one million. The same holds true for the superbowl. If a team wins the superbowl 10,000 times, then its odds of winning the superbowl are 10,000 divided by 1,000,000 or 1/100 or 1%. These results again are based on the remaining schedule, the home team, the strength of both teams based on power ratings and the NFL rules for making the playoffs and seeding the teams.